Could the Ukraine Crisis Lead to Nuclear Conflict? Part 2
A conversation with retired U.S. Air Force Major General John Borling
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This is the second and final part of my interview with retired U.S. Air Force Major General John L. Borling. We spoke March 4, early in the conflict.
Gen. Borling, who retired in 1997, was one of the architects of the American nuclear strategy and served as a top military to NATO. Gen. Borling writes a weekly newsletter, called Third Degree (www.third-degreeus.com)
The transcription of the interview has been edited.
Retired Maj. Gen. John Borling
RC: If the sanctions really start to bite, if they really hurt, if they cripple the Russian economy Putin is in a corner, isn’t he? From his perspective that might be provocation enough to lash out however he wants.
JB: It might be. But it’s different when you’ve got a couple of guys face to face (each) with a nuclear-tipped saber. So, I don’t think we should or can put ourselves rhetorically in a position where we are ineffectual. We can try to be responsible. We can try to be reasonable. We can try to offer a solution, however difficult. But, if the other side says we’re going to do away with you, we’re authorized to try to do away first or forestall that in a way that creates a different circumstance. You know that phrase about diplomacy? “Diplomacy is the art of saying, ‘Nice doggie’ while you’re looking for a big rock.” I think we’re looking at rocks and trying to be somewhat diplomatic. But when you see a build up like what was going on and you say we’re not going to put sanctions on because we don’t want to make him mad, I think action taken late may be worse than action not taken, in some respects.
RC: Would a no-fly zone make sense or would that be a provocation?
JB: I don’t know how you enforce a no-fly zone other than with Ukrainian pilots in Ukrainian airplanes operating from Ukrainian airspace, or mostly from Ukrainian airspace.
RC: Should Americans be concerned about the possibility this could blow up into a nuclear war?
JB: There’s no way to answer that question yes without, in my view, causing undue alarm. I come back to the notion that once super power troops are in contact, then it becomes certainly much more possible. Putting super power troops in contact is generally going to be a very bad idea. Having said that, you can’t leave the initiative to a more aggressive (adversary) or bloodthirsty or whatever you want to call an individual like Putin. So, it’s a Hobson’s choice on both sides, in my view, if you’re rational. And there is the question. Rationality gets thrown out window when events start to control events rather than people.
Kharkiv, Ukraine. Photo credit: Getty Images
RC: Are we there yet?
JB: Not in my view. You’re throwing an awful lot of responsibility on poor Officer Borling. (laughs)
RC: Well, your analysis and views and experience do count more than me telling someone at the next barstool what I think is going to happen.
JB: Be careful how you quote me. I don’t want to be viewed as the fomenter of unnecessary conflict. I just think we need to be starkly realistic.
RC: There was an article in the New York Times about what you were talking about -- how far you can push the rat, as you put it, into a corner, without provoking an escalation.
JB: Well, remember there's two rats in this game. I think the West -- NATO -- has said, "You invade our territory and you have just cornered us." So there may be a negotiated solution for Ukraine.
RC: I assume a key factor in all this is how rational, how reasonable Putin is and no one knows.
JB: He’s got to worry about the same thing. How rational and reasonable are we?
I think it’s really important to keep talking, to keep lines of communication open. Even in the face of anger or irrational activity or unhelpful thoughts, cursing. When communication breaks down, that’s when the events start to take control of the situation... We need to talk everyday. The supposition is we don’t want this to get out of hand and while we abhor what you’re doing in Ukraine, we need to impose mutual limits. It may fail. But you go back again and again. But it can’t be seen as a sign of weakness. I would argue for communication as hard as it’s going to be.
Cover photo: construction market in Kharkiv, Ukraine after being hit by six Russian missiles. Credit: Getty Images
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